• DAY1 Enhanced Risk NY/NE

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Sun Jun 23 13:12:00 2024
    ACUS01 KWNS 231615
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 231613

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

    Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
    ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...MASSACHUSETTS...AND WESTERN MAINE....

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
    PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts
    of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms
    expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the
    Northern High Plains.

    ...New England...
    Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern
    NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in
    the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid
    destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and
    little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm
    development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking
    rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings
    show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop
    beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary
    currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms
    interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may
    result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise,
    damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats.

    ...Upper OH Valley...
    An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY
    northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through
    the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at
    least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form.
    Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded
    downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose
    a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through
    the afternoon and early evening.

    ...MT/ND...
    Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm
    or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the
    international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest
    ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters
    would support a risk of large hail in these storms.

    ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/23/2024

    $$
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