• Beryl Brushing Jamaica

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Wed Jul 3 16:58:00 2024
    630
    WTNT32 KNHC 032042
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 21
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
    500 PM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

    ...EYEWALL OF BERYL BRUSHING THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA
    WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING...
    ...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT
    INTO THURSDAY AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT...

    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.5N 77.6W
    ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
    ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the
    southwestern peninsula of Haiti.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Jamaica
    * Grand Cayman
    * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
    * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
    Maya to Cancun

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
    Costa Maya to Chetumal
    * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
    Cabo Catoche

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
    Costa Maya to Chetumal
    * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
    Cabo Catoche

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City
    * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo
    Catoche to Campeche

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
    and property should be rushed to completion.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
    western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely
    monitor the progress of Beryl.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.

    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
    near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 77.6 West. Beryl is moving
    toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
    motion should continue through this evening, followed by a turn
    more toward the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track,
    the center of Beryl will pass near or over the southern coast of
    Jamaica during the next few hours. After that, the center is
    expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early
    Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday
    night or early Friday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
    Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
    day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major
    hurricane intensity while it passes the Cayman Islands. Additional
    weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to
    remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
    (295 km). Kingston, Jamaica, recently reported sustained winds of
    48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 81 mph (130 km/h).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

    WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of
    Jamaica at this time, especially along the southern coast and in
    the mountainous areas. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
    elsewhere on the island.

    Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
    are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
    indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
    even greater.

    Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
    tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
    tropical storm strength late this afternoon or early tonight,
    making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

    Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on
    the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds
    are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late
    Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

    Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
    along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late
    Thursday.

    Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
    area in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula by
    late Thursday.

    Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm
    watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday
    or early Friday, and in the tropical storm watch area along the
    coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday.

    STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
    to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
    the immediate coast of Jamaica.

    Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
    normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
    coast of the Cayman Islands.

    Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
    above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
    the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area.

    Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
    destructive waves.

    RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
    inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through
    Wednesday evening, along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches
    over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected
    to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

    Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches
    over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night into Thursday. Over the
    Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce
    rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches
    late Thursday through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding
    are anticipated.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
    associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
    Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

    SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting the
    southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. These
    swells are expected to reach the coasts of Costa Rica, Nicaragua,
    the Cayman Islands, and the south coast of Cuba this evening, and
    they are expected to reach the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the
    Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by midday Thursday. These swells are
    expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
    Please consult products from your local weather office.

    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
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